Uncertainty in Climate Science and its Impact on Decision-making
Paris
France
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Confirmed invited speakers: Pascale Braconnot (CEA), Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED), Mathias Frisch (University of Maryland), Jonathan Rougier (University of Bristol), Katie Steele (LSE).
Organizers: Isabelle Drouet and Julie Jebeile (Paris-Sorbonne)
26-27-28 May 2015, Maison de la Recherche (28 rue Serpente 75006 Paris, France)
Deep uncertainties affect our knowledge about climate, climate change, and their ecological and socioeconomic consequences. These uncertainties, which we need to take into account in our environmental decisions, arise from various sources: measurement errors in the production of input data, abstractions and idealizations in climate models, computer limitations when it comes to solving these models’ equations, and finally the increasingly complex integration into models of physical, biological, chemical and economical components.
The conference will address the characterization of these uncertainties, and investigate how they are and should be evaluated in view of decision-making. In particular, should uncertainties be evaluated probabilistically, and if so, how should probabilities be assigned to hypotheses about the future of climate and the consequences of climate change? The IPCC is an obvious object of investigation here, as it aims to inform decision-makers about climate knowledge, and as it has a clear methodology to assess the uncertainties we are after.
Julie Jebeile [email protected]
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