CFP: Uncertainty in Climate Science and its Impact on Decision-making

Submission deadline: January 15, 2015

Conference date(s):
May 26, 2015 - May 28, 2015

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Conference Venue:

Paris 4 Sorbonne
Paris, France

Topic areas

Details

International conference: “Uncertainty in Climate Science and its Impact on Decision-making”(UCSID)Presented by Sorbonne-Universités, SND (Sciences Normes Décision), University of Paris 4.

Scientific committee: Daniel Andler (Paris-Sorbonne), Anouk Barberousse (Lille 1), Isabelle Drouet (Paris-Sorbonne), Hervé le Treut (Paris 6), Marion Vorms (Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)
Confirmed invited speakers: Pascale Braconnot (CEA), Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED), Mathias Frisch (University of Maryland), Jonathan Rougier (University of Bristol), Katie Steele (LSE).
Organizers: Isabelle Drouet and Julie Jebeile (Paris-Sorbonne)

26-27-28 May 2015, Maison de la Recherche (28 rue Serpente 75006 Paris, France)

Deep uncertainties affect our knowledge about climate, climate change, and their ecological and socioeconomic consequences. These uncertainties, which we need to take into account in our environmental decisions, arise from various sources: measurement errors in the production of input data, abstractions and idealizations in climate models, computer limitations when it comes to solving these models’ equations, and finally the increasingly complex integration into models of physical, biological, chemical and economical components. 

The conference will address the characterization of these uncertainties, and investigate how they are and should be evaluated in view of decision-making. In particular, should uncertainties be evaluated probabilistically, and if so, how should probabilities be assigned to hypotheses about the future of climate and the consequences of climate change? The IPCC is an obvious object of investigation here, as it aims to inform decision-makers about climate knowledge, and as it has a clear methodology to assess the uncertainties we are after.

We welcome contributions dealing with, but not limited to, the following questions: 

Can uncertainty about the future of climate be assessed probabilistically?

What is the role of robustness of models’ results in the assessment of uncertainties?  What should it be? And what can we expect from more computational power?

How should one interpret probabilities in climate projections? What should be the role of Bayesian methods in dealing with these probabilities?

Is uncertainty about climate future assessed as a result of a purely epistemic process, or do social norms and values play a role as well?

How can uncertainties be taken into account in decisions about environmental and political issues? Is their ascertainment by numerical methods always helpful? 

How do the IPCC guidelines relate to normative theories of rationality?

We invite philosophers of science, interested climate scientists, as well as political scientists, sociologists and economists, to submit a 1,000-word extended abstract and a 100-word short abstract on any of the above or closely related questions. We are also open to symposia proposals. Please submit contributions edited for blind review to https://easychair.org/conferences/?conf=ucsid2015.


Submission Deadline: January 15, 2015 Acceptance Notification: February 15, 2015

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