Predictive ambitions and responses to predictive failure: Economics, cosmology/particle physics, and meteorology/climatology

"Predictive ambitions and responses to predictive failure: Economics, cosmology/particle physics, and meteorology/climatology" 

DISCUSSED BY
Syksy Räsänen (Particle physics / Cosmology, University of Helsinki) 
Antti Ripatti (Economics, University of Helsinki)
Heikki Järvinen (Meteorology / Climatology, University of Helsinki) 

Moderated by Academy professor Uskali Mäki.

TIME:
Monday 8 December, 16-18.

PLACE:
Metsätalo/Forest Building, Unioninkatu 40, room 6, 3rd floor.
www.helsinki.fi/teknos/opetustilat/keskusta/u40/ls6.htm


AID is the forum for interdisciplinary conversation coordinated by the Academy of Finland Centre of Excellence in the Philosophy of the Social Sciences, University of Helsinki. For the very idea and the programme, check www.helsinki.fi/tint/aid.htm. For further information, please contact Pekka Mäkelä, [email protected].

TOPIC of the session:
Science is typically expected to provide accurate and reliable predictions, but different disciplines take this expectation differently: some refute it entirely, while others aspire to meet it with different degrees of ambition. The very idea of prediction may vary across disciplines, and so may the aspirations concerning the kinds and accuracy of prediction. While predictive failure is unavoidable, disciplinary practices differ as to how they respond to such failures - what conclusions they draw when the world fails to behave the way it is anticipated to. All these differences may be functions of the various kinds and degrees complexity of the subject matter examined by various disciplines as well as of their disciplinary cultures regarding prediction. The predictive functions of economics, meteorology, climatology, and cosmology have some sort of public dimension, which adds to the importance of how they respond to predictive failure. 

QUESTIONS the debate will address include the following:
[1] Does your discipline have prediction as one of its goals? 
[2] What is it to predict? What is predicted? What do predictions look like? 
[3] What is the level of ambition regarding the accuracy and reliability of prediction? 
[4] How are predictions generated? 
[5] What is the rate of predictive failure / success in your discipline? 
[6] What explains predictive failure and success? 
[7] In case of predictive failure, how does your discipline respond? What are the relevant conventions and principles that govern the conclusions drawn from failure?