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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260409T065824Z
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20140930T131500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20140930T144500
SUMMARY:Causality\, Propensity\, and Simpson’s Paradox
UID:20260410T182928Z-iCalPlugin-Grails@philevents-web-f5d4878dd-r5qzs
TZID:Europe/London
LOCATION:London\, United Kingdom
DESCRIPTION:Tues 30 Sept\, 5.15pm\nRoom 243\, second floor\, Senate House\, WC1<br> Donald Gillies (UCL)<br> Causality\, Propensity\, and Simpson&rsquo\;s Paradox<br> Abstract: Contemporary medicine uses indeterministic causes\, i.e. causes which do not always give rise to their effects.&nbsp\; For example\, smoking causes lung cancer but only about 5% of smokers get lung cancer.&nbsp\; Indeterministic causes have to be linked to probabilities\, but the nature of this link is problematic.&nbsp\; Seemingly correct principles connecting causes to probabilities turn out to be liable to counter-examples.&nbsp\; The present paper explores this problem by interpreting the probabilities involved as propensities.&nbsp\; This associates the problem of linking causality and probability closely with Simpson&rsquo\;s paradox\, thereby suggesting a way in which the problem might be resolved.<br> <br> Full Series 2014/15: 
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