BEGIN:VCALENDAR
PRODID:-//Grails iCalendar plugin//NONSGML Grails iCalendar plugin//EN
VERSION:2.0
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260605T101209Z
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20150521T123000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20150521T143000
SUMMARY:Deliberation Welcomes Prediction
UID:20260608T003223Z-iCalPlugin-Grails@philevents-web-bd7db559-gt5qm
TZID:Europe/London
LOCATION:Radclife Humanities\, Faculty of Philosophy\, Woodstock Road\, Oxford\, United Kingdom\, OX2 6GG
DESCRIPTION:<p>A number of prominent authors&mdash\;Levi\, Spohn\, Gilboa\, Seidenfeld\, and Price among them&mdash\;hold that rational agents cannot assign subjective probabilities to their options while deliberating about which one they will choose. This has been called the &ldquo\;deliberation crowds out prediction&rdquo\; thesis. The thesis\, if true\, has important ramifications for many aspects of Bayesian epistemology\, decision theory\, and game theory. The stakes are high.</p>\n<p>The thesis is not true&mdash\;or so I maintain. After some scene-setting\, I will precisify and rebut several of the main arguments for the thesis. I will defend the rationality of assigning probabilities to options while deliberating about them: deliberation welcomes prediction.&nbsp\;I will also consider applications of the thesis\, and its denial\, to Pascal&rsquo\;s Wager.</p>
ORGANIZER:
METHOD:PUBLISH
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR