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VERSION:2.0
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260429T222916Z
DTSTART;TZID=Australia/Melbourne:20170817T121500
DTEND;TZID=Australia/Melbourne:20170817T141500
SUMMARY:Splicing with Death
UID:20260501T133537Z-iCalPlugin-Grails@philevents-web-6b96c54f56-bljdq
TZID:Australia/Melbourne
LOCATION:University of Melbourne\, Parkville\, Australia\, 3010
DESCRIPTION:Recent literature on causal decision theory (CDT) has featured much discussion of what Hare &amp\; Hedden call&nbsp\;``decision dependence''---the fact that\, for a causalist\, the expected utility of an act&nbsp\;a&nbsp\;can sometimes depend on&nbsp\;how confident one is that one will&nbsp\;perform a. &nbsp\;This is widely seen as puzzling. &nbsp\;In this talk\, I will focus on decision&nbsp\;dependent cases in which CDTers believe that they are subject to&nbsp\;tragic evidential correlations&nbsp\;(henceforth&nbsp\;TECs). &nbsp\;In a TEC case\, the more confident a CDTer grows that she will perform a given act&nbsp\;a\, the more&nbsp\;confident she becomes that&nbsp\;a&nbsp\;is a bad option: there is a tragic correlation between her confidence that&nbsp\;something is her next move and the expected utility she assigns to it.&nbsp\;&nbsp\;\n<p><br>Unlike the proponent of evidential decision theory (EDT)\, the CDTer distinguishes between tragic correlations&nbsp\;that are&nbsp\;merely&nbsp\;evidential\, and those that are causal as well. This leads the CDTer to have a complex attitude&nbsp\;towards her own anticipated pessimism in TEC cases. &nbsp\;As James Joyce puts it\, in a TEC case\, the CDTer&nbsp\;&nbsp\;``[does] not fully trust the accuracy of the future beliefs on which [her] regrets about [acting] will be based''. &nbsp\;I&nbsp\;present a decision problem in which this extra bit of doubt\, on behalf of the CDTer\, results in her making better&nbsp\;decisions than the EDTer.&nbsp\;</p>
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