Probabilistic Modeling in Science and Philosophy

October 11, 2013 - October 12, 2013
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern

University of Bern

Selected speakers:

Claus Beisbart
Universität Bern
Seamus Bradley
University of Munich
Roman Frigg
London School of Economics
Stephan Hartmann
Munich Centre for Mathematical Philosophy
Dirk Helbing
University of Zürich
Rafaela Hillerbrand
Delft University of Technology
Aidan Lyon
College Park
Margaret Morrison
University of Toronto
Wendy Parker
Durham University
Christoph Raible
Universität Bern
Frank Schweitzer
University of Zürich
Johanna F. Ziegel
Universität Bern


Claus Beisbart
Universität Bern
Stephan Hartmann
Christoph Raible
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern

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Probabilistic models are all the rage. We find a fascinating variety of them in the natural sciences (e.g. random walk and percolation models), in the social sciences (e.g. network models) and even in philosophy (e.g. in Bayesian epistemology and philosophy of science). But what are probabilistic models to begin with, and why are they so successful? How do they represent their target systems? What are scope and limitations of probabilistic models? Further, what is the meaning of the probabilities involved? Are they objective, or do they only reflect the degrees of belief of a scientist? The talks of the conference probe the varieties of probabilistic models, reflect their scope and limitations, and interpret the probabilities in probabilistic models. A particular focus will be on probabilistic modeling in climate research.

There is a registration fee of CHF 25 covering participation and coffee breaks.

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August 31, 2013, 3:00pm CET

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