The problem of baselining: philosophy, history, and coral reef science

Elis Jones

Dec 11, 16-18 UTC+0, Elis Jones (Konrad Lorenz Institute for Evolution and Cognition Research) , The problem of baselining: philosophy, history, and coral reef science

Abstract: Many areas of the life sciences, particularly those where human-driven changes are prevalent, have to grapple with the problem of baselining. Put briefly, this is the problem of how to decide how some system - for example, a coral reef - should normally appear and behave. This entails the acceptance of some state of the reef as the baseline (i.e. undegraded) state. Subsequent judgements about the condition of the reef are then made in contrast to the baseline.  In coral reef science, this problem looms large. Reefs are rapidly shifting into new states - made up of different combinations of animals, plants and other organisms - and these need to be assessed, understood, and responded to. But there are thorny philosophical problems here, manifested in debates in both the sciences and humanities. At the extremes, some take the position that each ecosystem has a single, true baseline, based purely on evidence about its past, whilst others take the position that there are no baselines in nature, and that baselines simply reflect human preferences. In this talk, I present insights into the baselining process in coral reef science, derived from interviews I conducted with coral scientists in 2021. Using qualitative and conceptual analysis, I explore some of the ways baselines can vary in a given case. By framing this in terms of sources of variation in the baselining process - rather than the common formulation as 'shifting baseline syndrome' - I hope to avoid the problematic relationship often implicitly posited between history and baselines: that the further back in history you look, the closer you get to the true baseline state of an ecosystem. Instead I suggest a more nuanced relationship, which allows for a role for historical evidence in telling us how ecosystems ought to be, but also makes clear the importance of broader considerations about the value of system. I finish by showing that this problem also applies to contexts beyond ecology, such as physiology and oceanography.