Carl Hoefer - Generic causation in complex, mind-dependent systems null, Carl Hoefer (University of Barcelona, Universitat de Barcelona)
1117 Cathedral of Learning - 11th Floor
University of Pittsburgh, 4200 Fifth Avenue
Pittsburgh 15260
United States
This event is available both online and in-person
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The Center for Philosophy of Science at the University of Pittsburgh invites you to join us for our Lunch Time Talk. Attend in person at 1117 Cathedral of Learning or visit our live stream on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrRp47ZMXD7NXO3a9Gyh2sg.
LTT: Carl Hoefer
Tuesday, October 8 @ 12:00 pm - 1:30 pm EDT
Title: Generic causation in complex, mind-dependent systems
Abstract: Often, in medicine and social sciences, we are interested finding generic causal facts: facts of the form X causes Y, where X and Y are event types rather than specific individual (“token”) events. In these sciences, often we are interested because X is something that is at least partially under our control: e.g., an educational policy that can be implemented, or a public health intervention that can be made.
The evidence-based medicine and evidence-based policy movements urge that we base medical and socio-political decisions on high-quality evidence that, ideally, strongly supports statements of this form, X causes (or X prevents) Y. It is a presupposition of these movements, and the forms of research they wish to rely on (including RCTs) that such facts about generic causation exist; our job is just to uncover them. But might this presupposition be mistaken, in some areas of human endeavour and inquiry?
In recent years I have become convinced that this presupposition is indeed mistaken, in at least some contexts that share these characteristics: complexity, strong dependence on initial conditions, and dependence on human behaviour. Using examples from the recent covid19 pandemic, I will illustrate the possibility that certain generic causal facts may fail to exist: it is neither correct to assert that X causes Y, nor correct to assert X does not cause Y. The discussion will bring together ideas from several of my earlier works on causation and on objective chance.
This talk will also be available live streamed on:
YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrRp47ZMXD7NXO3a9Gyh2sg
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