Shimin Zhao - From probability raising to actual causation

Shimin Zhao (University of Pittsburgh, University of Pittsburgh)

The Center for Philosophy of Science at the University of Pittsburgh invites you to join us in person for our upcoming presentations. Due to technical issues, this talk will not be livestreamed. If possible, a recording will be made available on our YouTube channel:  Shimin Zhao

Tuesday, October 13th @ 12:00 pm - 1:30 pm EST

Title: From probability raising to actual causation

Abstract:

In this talk, I address an epistemic gap between statistical causal models and actual causal inquiries. First, I illustrate the gap with two cases: radiation cancer and coin bending. In both cases, the actual causes are empirically undecidable, leading to a deadlock of intuitions. Then, I propose a methodological shift. Rather than relying on unverifiable assumptions, I analyze the functions of causal concepts: why are we interested in causes even when actual causal inquiries cannot be answered? I argue that the answer is: guiding future actions and assigning responsibility. Crucially, for both purposes, a probability-raiser (under interventions) is sufficient. Thus, for practical purposes, a probability-raiser functions exactly as a cause. This crosses the gap from probability raising to actual causation, without dissolving the difference. A metaphysics-free interpretation of the legal “probability of causation” metric is also provided, as an application of my account.