The Problem of Thinking Too Much

Persi Diaconis (Stanford University)

Abstract. We all know the problem: you sit there, turning things over, and nothing gets done.  Indeed, there are examples where “quick and dirty,” throwing away information, dominate.  My examples will be from Bayesian statistics and the mathematics of coin tossing, but I will try to survey some of the work in psychology, philosophy, and economics.  

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