Essential Simplifications of Savage’s Subjective Probabilities System

Prof Haim Gaifman (Columbia University), Yang Liu (University of Cambridge)

Abstract. This talk covers: (I)  A short outline of Savage’s system, (II) A new mathematical technique for handling “partitions with errors” that leads to a simplification that Savage tried but did not succeed in getting, which leads to the definition of numerically precise probabilities without the σ-algebra assumption. (III) Some philosophical analysis of the notion of idealized rational agent, which is commonly used as a guideline for subjective probabilities.

Some acquaintance with Savage’s system is helpful, but (I) is added in order to make for a self-contained presentation. The talk is based on a joint work by the authors. Please email Robby for an introductory section of the present draft of the paper.

More about the seminar here.

We will be having dinner right after the meeting at the faculty house. Please let Robby know if you will be joining us so that he can make an appropriate reservation (please be advised that at this point the university only agrees to cover the expenses of the speaker and the rapporteur and that the cost for all others is $30, payable by cash or check).