Foundations of a Probabilistic Theory of Causal Strength

Jan Sprenger (University of Turin)

Abstract:

This talk develops axiomatic foundations for a probabilistic 
theory of causal strength. I proceed in three steps: First, I motivate 
the choice of causal Bayes nets as a framework for defining and 
comparing measures of causal strength. Second, I prove several 
representation theorems for probabilistic measures of causal 
strength---that is, I demonstrate how these measures can be derived from 
a set of plausible adequacy conditions. Third, I use these results to 
argue for a specific measure of causal strength. I conclude by 
discussing my results and outlining future research avenues.