Causality, Propensity, and Simpson’s Paradox
Establishing Objective Causes in Medicine Donald Gillies (UCL), Donald Gillies

September 30, 2014, 1:15pm - 2:45pm
Institute of Philosophy, University of London

London
United Kingdom

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Tues 30 Sept, 5.15pm Room 243, second floor, Senate House, WC1
Donald Gillies (UCL)
Causality, Propensity, and Simpson’s Paradox
Abstract: Contemporary medicine uses indeterministic causes, i.e. causes which do not always give rise to their effects.  For example, smoking causes lung cancer but only about 5% of smokers get lung cancer.  Indeterministic causes have to be linked to probabilities, but the nature of this link is problematic.  Seemingly correct principles connecting causes to probabilities turn out to be liable to counter-examples.  The present paper explores this problem by interpreting the probabilities involved as propensities.  This associates the problem of linking causality and probability closely with Simpson’s paradox, thereby suggesting a way in which the problem might be resolved.

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